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HS2 — What Went Wrong and What Must We Learn?

Industry Insight HS2 · Project Delivery · Project Controls

HS2 — What Went Wrong and What Must We Learn?

The latest BBC and wider media reports suggesting HS2 costs could now exceed £100bn were painful to read — not just as a British taxpayer, but also as a project professional who continues to advocate for successful project delivery.

What makes this even more difficult is that:

The HS2 Cost Reality
Original
Estimate at project inception
>£100bn
Projected costs now reported
>3×
Potential cost increase — with reduced scope
  • The original scope has been significantly reduced
  • Key northern legs were cancelled
  • Yet the projected costs have potentially more than tripled from the original estimates

What this article explores

I've written a short article exploring:

Project Delivery Failures

What went wrong from a project delivery perspective and why megaprojects move from delivery mode → recovery mode.

Policy Shifts and Changing Priorities

The impact of shifting political priorities and how decisions made outside the project affected outcomes inside it.

Optimism Bias and Immature Estimating

How early cost estimates were shaped by optimism bias and the consequences of immature estimating practices.

Weak Integration Across Controls

Weak integration across cost, schedule, risk, and change — and why fragmented controls fail on complex programmes.

Stakeholder Engagement and Delivery Governance

The role of governance structures and stakeholder engagement in shaping — and sometimes undermining — delivery outcomes.

Importantly, the article is balanced. HS2 is not simply a rail issue — it is one of the most significant modern case studies in megaproject delivery.

HS2 is not simply a rail issue — it is one of the most significant modern case studies in megaproject delivery.

The right question to ask

The key question now is not
"Who do we blame?"
"What lessons must we learn to avoid repeating this on future national programmes?"

Because ultimately, successful project delivery is not just about infrastructure

It's about:

Public trust

Economic confidence

Responsible use of taxpayer money

The credibility of our profession itself